No doubt about it, the UMPC is here. But is it here to stay? There are lots of opportunities for success… and even more opportunities to crash-and-burn. Looking into the Ultranauts.com crystal ball, we see a lot of both happening. There will be spectacular wins and stunning losses for the new platform. From the probable to the far-fetched (and everything in between), only one thing is for sure… each of these Top 10 UMPC Predictions (collected here together for the first time) will spark controversey. Who will live? Who will die? Who will kiss $799 to $1299 good-bye? Read-on to uncover the truth about the UMPC’s future.

You can click on the heading of each prediction for a permalink to just that prediction (handy for emailing a friend just one or two particularly interesting or insane predictions).

UMPC Prediction #1: The UMPC will get off to an extremely slow start

While there is much excitement in the air related to the upcoming Ultra Mobile PC, the platform will come out of the gate at a slow walk rather than an all-out sprint. Expect to see an extended “launch window” for the platform that covers months, not days as Microsoft, Intel and their partners tweak their messages, their marketing (and their software).

While the UMPC will initially look like it’s headed for nicheville ala the Tablet PC, a very quite, but strong grassroots movement will slowly, but surely push the platform towards the mainstream. Additional, broad-appeal applications and a few predictions that we’ll save for later in the series will finally push the platform beyond the early-adopters.

It will take more than a year. Maybe two.

UMPC Prediction #2: The UMPC will have a place next to your TV remote

While the UMPC will make good use of its ability to leverage many traditional Windows applications, its unique size and generous connectivity capabilities will take it well beyond its OS roots. Case-in-point: The Ultra Mobile PC will become a central “hub” that controls your Media Center PC, your home network and perhaps even your Xbox 360. And it will excel at being able to perform those remote control functions, uh, remotely. Forget to record the new episode of Battlestar Galactica? No problem. The UMPC can set that up for you… no matter where you are. Want to watch that newly recorded episode of BSG? No problem. The UMPC can pull it up and stream it to you… no matter where you are. Want add that new BSG to your season archive? No problem. Your UMPC can compress it and send it over to your media SAN… no matter where you are.

Certainly all of this is possible today via laptops and even some PDAs, but it will be the UMPC that brings an elegance and ease to the process. And it is the UMPC that will finally bring a ubiquitous experience to controling your security system, your lighting sysyem, your A/V and your computing infrastructure, bridging the gap between home and road.

All hail the new uber-remote!

Prediction #3: A dedicated peripheral industry will emerge

We’ve watched as several successful consumer technology products have paved the way for lucrative periphreal aftermarkets whose revenue and profit can rival those of the device itself. The iPod is certainly the model example here.

We believe that the UMPC/Origami will follow in those same footsteps, but to a lesser extent and at a much slower pace. However, you can expect that the market will rush to supply everything from hard cases to day-planner-like leather portfolios to screen protectors to case skins that let you add some personality to the bland industrial stylings we’re currently seeing from the manufacturers.

Of course, most things on that list of examples are table-stakes. It’s the high dollar peripherals that will be the most exciting. These add-ons will cover everything from device docks and keyboards to tv tuners and satellite radio receivers.

But, what else, besides the obvious, could roll down the UMPC peripheral pipe and really set a bar for UMPC innovation or even become the platform’s killer app? We certainly don’t know the answer to that, but we’ll make some suggestions. An easy to use, all-in-one field audo recording/mixing kit would be a welcome addition. As would an analog control pad attachment that could make playing certain game genres even easier.

The possibilites are endless as the UMPC really is a device that strikes a singularly unique balance between size, functionality and price. I’m sure I’ll spend as much on UMPC extras as I have on iPod extras (translation: I will be spending alot!)

Prediction #4: The “Internet Cohort” generation will make the UMPC a cool tool

Just as with cellphones, webcams, IM, T9 SMS and myspace accounts, the “Internet Cohort” generation (i.e. today’s youth who grew up in a connected, wireless world) will latch onto the UMPC and utilize it as the ultimate device to multi-task and stay in constant contact with their world and their friends.

With its relatively low-price, small form factor and an array of connectivity and input mechanisims, the Ultra Mobile PC could be that one device that effectively bridges the laptop/cellphone divide to become a teenager’s on-the-go nirvana.

And parent’s might just fall for the “it will help me with my homework” line. Besides, all the cool kids have one!

Prediction #5: The UMPC will not be an ideal gaming platform

As a gaming machine goes, the UMPC will leave something to be desired (sorta like how the PSP leaves something to be desired). Oh sure, the Origami will play Solitaire just fine and will likely even run most of yesteryear’s powerhouse games at a decent clip. The real problem here is not with the system’s power or its small size, it’s the UMPC’s lack of adequate control mechanics. We could be wrong here, but playing Doom 3 or FEAR on this thing doesn’t look like a satisfying proposition.

With a touchscreen to help out, some games may translate over ok, but most will prove too complex for the UMPCs self-imposed, on-the-go limitations (unless you atrted adding in keybaord and mosue peripherals). A notable exception to this rule (and, really, one that could totally blast the doors off of this prediction) is the MMORPG. Most of the current generation MMORPG’s are click driven games and a UMPC would suit this type of play style rather well. Sure, easy analog control would be ideal, but an MMORPG could make due and adapt to the rogors of an Ultra Mobile PC.

Imagine World of Warcraft or D&D on-the-go. I know plenty of game-geeks who have that exact dream. I don’t think the UMPC will make this a reality, but it is capable.

Besides, we know that Micosoft has its own, true portable game machine in development. The UMPC won’t be competing with it. Micorsoft will make sure of that.

Prediction #6: The UMPC will have limited penetration into vertical markets/applications

Plenty is being written on the topic of the UMPC’s potential play in different vertical markets — from education to hospitailty to healthcare. And, sure, the system seems tailor made for certain applications. In retail, it would make a great point-of-sale device where cashiers could ring you up as you shopped instead of waiting in line. It would seem a natural for caregivers to boost their productivity by utilizing Ultra Mobile PCs that are loaded with mobile rounding applications from the likes of PatientKeeper or Mercury MD.

But, the spec that Microsoft and partners have developed for Origami isn’t going to allow for too much verticalization or specialization with the platform (beyond what some very creative consumers will come up with). The platform is capped at around two-pounds… this is the major bottle-neck for it’s success as a vertical workhorse.

The options for tough, ruggedized casings are extremely limited at that weight. Extended life and double-pack batteries are also limited due to this weight cap. No medical facility, school system or retailer is going to invest much in a platform that may begin showing some wear-and-tear after a few mis-handlings. And few businesses are going to rely on a device with such limited power reserves for mission critical processes such as medical applications or payment transactions.

It’s just not worth the risk or the cost.

Prediction #7: The UMPC could play a big role in the automotive market

Automobiles have always played a big part in the courtship between old technology and new. It’s where rubber meets silicon, RPMs meet MHz and where combustion engines mate with electric ones. The automotive industry (including the huge automotive aftermarket) has pushed GPS, emergency assistance, secruity and “asset recovery,” satellite radio and on-the-road entertainment from niche to standard equipment in just the past decade.

Many of my friends and neighbors’ cars, SUVs and minivans more resemble AV rooms on wheels than they do anything else. They’ve got built-in widescreen DVD players, videogames, visual navigation systems, state-of-the-art sound systems, wireless headphones and the list goes on!

That’s where the UMPC starts to look interesting, especially at lower price points. The Ultra Mobile PC has the ability — right out of the box — to replance and/or supplement all of that functionality listed above. It can play movies and music (and beam the stuff wirelessly right into the car’s hardwired AV set-up). It can act as a GPS navigator (ok, this one is likely going to take and add-on component). And it can play games, ebooks and provide other interactive activities that will keeps the kids quiet on those long road-trips. The UMPC can do these things either as an in-built extension of the vehicle or as part of a dockable system that would allow you to take and reposition the device with you anywhere in or out of the ca

But it’s not all of the things that the UMPC can now make moot that we should really be looking at… it’s the new things that the platform can enable that are the most exciting. Imagine that the UMPC could wake itself up every morning and have a selection of your email, news and driving and weather conditions ready for you when you start-up. Imagine that the UMPC interacted with your home network while it sat in the garage every night, downloading new movies and content to the device while you slept so that little Johnny and little Suzy had the latest episode of Bob the Builder or Winx Club for the long drive to school or gymnastics lessons. Imagine the UMPC being able to turn on all of your house lights and check your webcams as you pull into the garage.

I can imagine that stuff. I know that it is much harder to code this stuff than it is to dream it, but I’m looking forward to the possibilities. Besides, I’m pretty sure that the President of Microsoft was recently quoted as promising a “chicken in every pot and a UMPC in every garage.” I hope that we’re on the way.

Prediction #8: The UMPC will reap the rewards of open source and alternate OSs

While the UMPC’s target audience seems to be consumers (or as Microsoft calls them, “the uninformed masses”), don’t under-estimate the ability of the IT and hacker communities to make the UMPC their own… literally.

Open source projects and an ability to run alternate operating systems (UMPCs have been seen booting Linux before most people have even see a UMPC) will have a mystical appeal to those folks who immediately turn their noses to a platform developed by the Evil Empire(tm). Indeed, taking the Microsoft out of the UMPC may breath new life into the enterprise and techy markets in the exact same way that putting Microsoft into Apple’s laptops are opening new doors for those premium priced pieces of hardware.

These are crazy times. Who is your enemy, who is you ally? Do you want a closed system to maintain complete control? Or do you want something a bit more flexible, so as to broaden the market. As Obi-Wan Kenobi famously said to Boss Nass in the classic Star Wars film, The Phantom Menace, “You form a symbiant circle. You must realize this.” Indeed Obi-wan, we’re all in this together.

So, the hackorz and the hatorz and the tinkerorz and the entrprenuerorz will undoubtedly take the UMPC to strange and surprising new places. Especially, if it is made easier for them to do so.

The botoom-line to this prediction? When Microsoft’s new baby is no longer Microsoft’s baby, the UMPC will be poised for additional market penetration… and additional market success. It’s really not a question of “if”, it’s a question of “when.” We’re prediciting it will be rather soon.

Prediction #9: Someone will step in and help you pay for your UMPC… for a price.

The first batch of UMPC prices are more than I think most of us had hoped (though I don’t think any of us are surprised). On a side note, I’m a bit perplexed by the channel model that is evolving for the platform based on Micorsoft’s seeming desire to make this a consumer device. Then again, I’m not sure I completely understand the UMPC channel model.

What I do know is that the price is going to need to come down one way or another if that consumer target market is to be tapped. There are a couple of ways to skin that cat. The most obvious is to manufacturer a cheaper device. That usually takes volume. So, that’s a catch-22 unless Micorsoft and partners are going to down-grade and change the UMPC base spec. That leaves the next most obvious way to make this more acceptable to the consumer market. Subsidy.

It’s the old (but still current) mobile phone model. Buy a 2 year contract, get the phone for $99. A 1 year commitment? That phone is $199. Just want to pay month-to-month? Fork over $299 for that exact same phone.

Someone, somewhere is going to realize very quickly that if you want to jump-start this platform with the “Joe and Sally Consumer” crowd, you’re going to need to find a way to subsidize the price of the device so it effectively comes down. Way down. The UMPC is actually a perfect device for this model and for certain companies to partner with Microsoft with to subsidize. Here’s a great example (that I would love to see happen):

Verizon is rolling out its FIOS Internet and TV service across the nation currently. When you sign up for service you get a wireless router and a free MSN premium subscription. Seems to me, that as a part of that deal (given that the perfect target audience for the UMPC is likely going to be a lot of the same folks that adopt FIOS service) a subsidized UMPC for between $299 and $599 (or free with a 3 year committment) makes a ton of sense. The UMPC can integrate with that wireless router and really bring the full power of FIOS (TV and Internet!) anywhere into the home. And some places outside of it.

That’s just one scenario. There are a million others. What kind of offers make sense to you?

I’ve seen the future. It will be subsidized.

Prediction #10: In one mighty blow, the UMPC will displace the high-end PDA, the PMP and everyone’s favorite underdog, the TabletPC.

I’d hate to be a TabletPC manufacturer right now (or worse, a TabletPC blog). It must feel a bit like being in a guillotine, watching your own head drop into the basket. Ok, maybe it’s not that bad, but let’s just say that I’m pretty happy to be covering UMPCs right now instead of PMPs (personal media players), higher-end PDAs or those crazy Tablets.

The market just can’t support so many devices with so many obvious functional overlaps and with so many marketing overlaps. Something has to give. The UMPC is the straw that broke the camal’s back for all of these platforms.

TabletPCs will go completely niche and only serve very specific vertical applications. Most mainstream Tablet SKUs will disappear from the catalogs by 2007.

High-end PDAs will become all but extinct. Sub $250 models will continue to sell, but the catagory overall is headed for a bonafide merger with the cellphone, where, ultimately, even the stand-alone $250 PDA will cease to exist as its functionality is consumed by PDA/phone hybrids like the Treo 700.

PMPs never got off the ground to begin with with. Those unweildy devices (though I do love my Archos AV420) will become a thing of the past… fast, especially as UMPC prices drop to below the sub-$700 level sometime in 2007.

Don’t be sad for any of these devices. This is destiny, driven by the hand of God Bill Gates. It was inevitable and necessary. Without overpriced PDAs and experiments with super media players and the try-and-fail experience of pen-computing on the TabletPC, we would not be at the point we are at now. We would not have a UMPC.

Just remember this: Inside of every UMPC, you’ll find the heart of a high-end PDA, the intelligence of a TabletPC and the courage of a PMP.

I, for one, can’t wait to welcome the shift and the UMPC. How about you?

Buh-bye, TabletPC… Bon Voyage, super-PDA… PMP, we hardly knew ya. Oh, the humanity.

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