Never trap a TabletPC blogger in the corner. Ultranauts.com’s Top 10 UMPC Predictions have stirred up quite a dialogue on some of the mainstream mobility sites and blogs.

First up, Craig Pringle takes a whack at prediction #10 (the displacement of the Tablet, PDA and PMP).

Tablets will hold a place in the mobile device continuum, as will Laptops and UMPCs. However the term Tablet PC may well fade.

Excellent point, Craig. We actually may be in disagreement in semantics only. With regards to Tablets specifically, a better word to use may be “merge” or “complement” rather than “displace”. These two kindred platforms will likely come closer together over time. I ultimately believe that the Tablet of today will remain nichey, and that the UMPC will step in to take over it’s function/capabilities/potential in the mainstream. Either way, inking is here to stay. Great commentary! Also, you nailed one other thing:

As interesting as the whole post was, number 10 raised my ire – but of course I suspect it was supposed to.

*wink*

Next up are the folks at jkOnTheRun. They beat me up on Prediction #8 (The hacker factor) and Prediction #10 (displacement). I’ve gotta say that they made some excellent rebuttals.

Little PCs like the Origamis often have somewhat tweaked drivers and BIOS to get full functionality out of a very tiny package and Linux often chokes on this. There just isn’t enough interest to get driver developers to write them for a slightly non-standard hardware.

You could have substituted the word Origami here for Xbox (another “little PC”). I’m amazed at the extra functionality that has been created for this machine by the community. It’s a better media center (by far) than the Media Center provided by Microsoft, for example. This group got past the driver and BIOS issues just fine. Of course, this example skirts the semantics of open-source developers and hackers and everything in between. Nor is making your Xbox into something new and different an easy task. So, you are likely right, Prediction #8 will be harder than I expect it will be. But I expect it will play a role, small or large.

The UMPC/ Origami will never displace the high-end PDA for two simple reasons. The people who find their PDA indispensable can put it in their pocket and carry it everywhere. They are a nice size to be carried everywhere because once the PDA is also a phone you HAVE to carry it everywhere. You will not do that with a device that is even slightly too big, without a numeric keypad and that doesn’t have a battery that will last more than a day.

We’re in 100% agreement here. The PDA will ultimately merge with the phone.

I don’t believe the UMPC will replace the Tablet PC because it’s a totally different market. Tablet PCs have evolved into powerful laptops that also work in slate mode, a perfect fit for professionals.

Again, some agreement here. My predictions don’t call for the death of the Tablet at all. It simply says that the UMPC will take over the Tablets opportunity in the mass-market, leaving the Tablet to specialized/verticalized marekts, which are, indeed, totally different markets. They are very much a great match for professions and certain business scenarios. (I just don’t expect IT departments to move from laptops to tablets during the next refresh or anything… there’s too much risk and incremental cost for the IT department for Tablets to become mainstream in the business world.)

Make sure to read the fullpost from jkOnTheRun as they bring up other excellent and valid points that I don’t to justice to (or rebuke) here.

Coming around the bend next is Life on the Wicked Stage

UMPC/Origami will add to the choices already out there in form factor, price point, and dare I say style. It will open up new markets to Inking and I believe increase Tablet PC market share as new UMPC/Origami users will discover the benefits of inking and touch and some will want a bit more ummph.

This is a fantastic thought. There is certainly a possibility that mainstream UMPC success would lead to greater demand for the bigger brother overtime. This is a scenario I would like to see.

Finally, comes a post from GottabeMobile. I’m just a footnote in Dennis Rice’s soapbox sermon, but I’m a bit unsure about his mention of my article and his ultimate point/conclusions.

I love it when someone makes a post that proves my point. Check this one out on Ultranauts that I did not see until after this post, and you be the judge. Entitled to opinion — yes. Serves a purpose? What do you think?

I’m not the most brillaint guy around, but I’m pretty sure that was an insult. So, what is Dennis’ point?

The reason for the soapbox comment is to wonder out loud why people cannot be open minded, be honest, but also be fair in comments, and wait out some things on Ultra-Mobile PC’s as they arrive? I REALLY think I get it. No, it will NOT replace my need for a nice Tablet or laptop, but I really see a place for this in my lifestyle. Make a choice. Or do nothing. But don’t trash my choice.

I’m not sure of the choice you’re actually making here. Looks like you can afford not to make choices. Most people don’t have the luxary of making every choice. And most people don’t have the desire to not choose, to do nothing. Becasue of that, people will ultimately… choose. And when people start choosing, there are usually winners and losers, favorites and underdogs. Ask the Commodore Amiga, the Betamax, the Sega Dreamcast, the phonograph, the Atari Portfolio (yes, I owned one… that should give me some street cred in the mobility computing space) etc, etc about which option the market picked when faced with multiple choices and similar functionality (no matter how superior/expansive the displaced choice was). Anyway, thank you for making a post that proves my point.

Lessons learned for Ultranauts.com? If only 1 out of 10 predictions is going to cause any real consternation, then you’re not thinking hard enough. We’ll do better next time. But, all kidding aside, I’m pretty proud to be a part of the UMPC/TablePC/Mobility/Whatever community right now. Excellent discussion, blogging brothers (and sisters). If we continue it (and many others like it), maybe we’ll have the impact and influence to improve the market.

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