As, uh, predicted, Ultranauts’ UMPC Prediction #10 (massive displacement) created a bit of an uproar. Then of course, as folks like the awesome Craig Pringle, immediately realized, the post had a singular purpose: get people to talk about the mobile computing market. And, boy did they talk. There were lots of lucid commentaries and disagreements and questions and thought. Quite frankly, it was excellent and prompted me to write about how proud I was to be a part of the extended mobile computing community.
And I still am proud to be. I just disagree with what I see as some (probably unintentional) hypocritical behavior and some soapbox shenannigans. For instance, I have yet to recieve any of the uncivilized, immature “can’t we all just get along” behavior that Dennis Rice thinks is so persistent. Nor have I seen the PMP fans or the PDA fans jump in to defend their platforms with such passion and determination.
I think that an email that I recieved from a self-described TabletPC fan makes a pretty good, if not slightly harsh point that I failed to consider:
“While I don’t think tablets will be completely pushed out of the market, you give Tablet PCs more credit than they deserve by putting them on the same list as PMPs and PDAs in the first place. It is hard to “displace” something that never really had a place to begin with. The TabletPC has never been more than a niche. It is not going mainstream anytime soon — which is why I suspect that Microsoft is launching the tablet v2.0 with the UMPC. If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. Thanks for treating the TabletPC as a peer. I bet that both PDAs and PMPs have dramatically outsold TabletPCs.”
There is an irony in that email that strikes me as incredibly funny. This is a bit of the exact argument that the TabletPC community gave to as why the UMPC would not displace anything. I’ll paraphrase a couple of the mainstream site/blog rebuttals to Predictions #10:
“The UMPC won’t displace the PDA, the phone is already doing that.”
and
“You can’t bring the PMP into this as it never had a market and never got off the ground to begin with.”
Pot. Calling. Kettle. Black.
Ultimately, I think this comes down to something that jkOnTheRun brings up in their excellent OnTheRun #20 podcast. A lot of people take this stuff personally. Well, jk actually affords the TabletPC the high-ground and talks to how UMPC owners (of which there are none) and PDA owners look at those devices as an extension of themselves and are, by their very nature, personal devices. I just thought this was brilliant. Excellent insight. However, if jk is correct, I think that the TabletPC community takes “their” platform to heart the most, arguably. Inking is personal. That’s your handwriting. They are one of a very small minority converted to a superior way of interacting with their computer. Rebels and revolutionaries are often the most vocal and ardent. And I wouldn’t have it any other way.
What I would have is this… Dennis’ message of tolerance really should have been a message of love, of family. These devices, Tablets, UMPCs, PDAs (and even PMPs) are brothers, sisters and cousins. Are they really that different? When one goes away, is it really dead/displaced? Or does it carry on, in a new form via its technological off-spring?
“The son becomes the father… and the father, the son.” - Jor El to Kal El in Superman: The Movie.
That’s the discussion I wrote Prediction #10 to have.
Listen to jkOnTheRun’s excellent podcast covering the whole drama here. Oh, and next time, guys, I would love to participate in the discussion. That would have made a fun podcast!
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