How’s this for a second post to the brand new Ultranauts.com? The UMPC is dead. At least that’s what uber-analyst firm Gartner is predicting in a research note released earlier this week (you’ll be forced to type ‘UMPC’ into the search box due to Gartner’s prohibiting of direct links to documents).
“Today, we believe it isn’t possible to produce compelling UMPC products — just ‘proofs of concept.’ The low battery life, high price and non-Vista operating system will likely hurt the UMPC’s market acceptance in this first go-round,and the negative backlash could damage its future chances. For these reasons, we question the timing of this launch: Why rush this to market before it is ready to succeed?”
Gartner may have one point here: The UMPC was rushed to market. But, it’s not a rush to market for any of of the reasons that Gartner mentions. Where the rush seems to have occured is in defining a clear value proposition in the marketplace. Why do we need this thing? The rush was not, as Gartner contends, in the limitations or cost of the technology. The technology is there, but compelling reasons for why the UMPC is a “clear alternative” or a “clear companion” to a traditional PC or a tablet PC have been few and far between… at least from the marketing teams at Microsoft, Intel and their manufacturing partners.
The community seems to be rushing in to fill the value prop gap. And, in fact, there are plenty of compelling reasons for the existence of the UMPC. But those are perhaps better left to another post. So, back to Gartner’s main arguments: cost, low-power and no-Vista will doom the UMPC. Maybe. But we’re pretty sure that high-cost, low-power and no-Vista didn’t kill off the laptop market.