As, uh, predicted, Ultranauts’ UMPC Prediction #10 (massive displacement) created a bit of an uproar. Then of course, as folks like the awesome Craig Pringle, immediately realized, the post had a singular purpose: get people to talk about the mobile computing market. And, boy did they talk. There were lots of lucid commentaries and disagreements and questions and thought. Quite frankly, it was excellent and prompted me to write about how proud I was to be a part of the extended mobile computing community.
And I still am proud to be. I just disagree with what I see as some (probably unintentional) hypocritical behavior and some soapbox shenannigans. For instance, I have yet to recieve any of the uncivilized, immature “can’t we all just get along” behavior that Dennis Rice thinks is so persistent. Nor have I seen the PMP fans or the PDA fans jump in to defend their platforms with such passion and determination.
I think that an email that I recieved from a self-described TabletPC fan makes a pretty good, if not slightly harsh point that I failed to consider:
“While I don’t think tablets will be completely pushed out of the market, you give Tablet PCs more credit than they deserve by putting them on the same list as PMPs and PDAs in the first place. It is hard to “displace” something that never really had a place to begin with. The TabletPC has never been more than a niche. It is not going mainstream anytime soon — which is why I suspect that Microsoft is launching the tablet v2.0 with the UMPC. If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. Thanks for treating the TabletPC as a peer. I bet that both PDAs and PMPs have dramatically outsold TabletPCs.”
There is an irony in that email that strikes me as incredibly funny. This is a bit of the exact argument that the TabletPC community gave to as why the UMPC would not displace anything. I’ll paraphrase a couple of the mainstream site/blog rebuttals to Predictions #10:
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