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Its been a busy week at Ultranauts.com, but only about 75 folks participated in the latest poll. Perhaps the question was too toungue-n-cheek. The real point of the poll was to guage which device the UMPC is most likely to replace as it has the ability to be an all-in-one wonder machine. But, to be realistic, it probably won’t excel in each and every thing it can do it.

That said, the results aren’t too surprising. Most folks said that they wouldn’t be turning over the keys to any of their other devices for the new platform. If anyone was giving up anything, it was their existing multi-purpose computing device in the form of their laptop/tablet/pda for the UMPC.

One stand-out result: not a single person said they would sacrifice their ebook reader. It’s just more proof of the ebook reader’s dominance as a consumer device. Can any device defeat the ebook juggernaut?

After a brutal round 1, folks are getting creative in their commentary on the UMPC vs TabletPC debate. It’s a pretty darn funny comic, if you ask me.

Nice work Richard Corbett!

Never trap a TabletPC blogger in the corner. Ultranauts.com’s Top 10 UMPC Predictions have stirred up quite a dialogue on some of the mainstream mobility sites and blogs.

First up, Craig Pringle takes a whack at prediction #10 (the displacement of the Tablet, PDA and PMP).

Tablets will hold a place in the mobile device continuum, as will Laptops and UMPCs. However the term Tablet PC may well fade.

Excellent point, Craig. We actually may be in disagreement in semantics only. With regards to Tablets specifically, a better word to use may be “merge” or “complement” rather than “displace”. These two kindred platforms will likely come closer together over time. I ultimately believe that the Tablet of today will remain nichey, and that the UMPC will step in to take over it’s function/capabilities/potential in the mainstream. Either way, inking is here to stay. Great commentary! Also, you nailed one other thing:

As interesting as the whole post was, number 10 raised my ire – but of course I suspect it was supposed to.

*wink*

Next up are the folks at jkOnTheRun. They beat me up on Prediction #8 (The hacker factor) and Prediction #10 (displacement). I’ve gotta say that they made some excellent rebuttals.

Little PCs like the Origamis often have somewhat tweaked drivers and BIOS to get full functionality out of a very tiny package and Linux often chokes on this. There just isn’t enough interest to get driver developers to write them for a slightly non-standard hardware.

You could have substituted the word Origami here for Xbox (another “little PC”). I’m amazed at the extra functionality that has been created for this machine by the community. It’s a better media center (by far) than the Media Center provided by Microsoft, for example. This group got past the driver and BIOS issues just fine. Of course, this example skirts the semantics of open-source developers and hackers and everything in between. Nor is making your Xbox into something new and different an easy task. So, you are likely right, Prediction #8 will be harder than I expect it will be. But I expect it will play a role, small or large.

The UMPC/ Origami will never displace the high-end PDA for two simple reasons. The people who find their PDA indispensable can put it in their pocket and carry it everywhere. They are a nice size to be carried everywhere because once the PDA is also a phone you HAVE to carry it everywhere. You will not do that with a device that is even slightly too big, without a numeric keypad and that doesn’t have a battery that will last more than a day.

We’re in 100% agreement here. The PDA will ultimately merge with the phone.

I don’t believe the UMPC will replace the Tablet PC because it’s a totally different market. Tablet PCs have evolved into powerful laptops that also work in slate mode, a perfect fit for professionals.

Again, some agreement here. My predictions don’t call for the death of the Tablet at all. It simply says that the UMPC will take over the Tablets opportunity in the mass-market, leaving the Tablet to specialized/verticalized marekts, which are, indeed, totally different markets. They are very much a great match for professions and certain business scenarios. (I just don’t expect IT departments to move from laptops to tablets during the next refresh or anything… there’s too much risk and incremental cost for the IT department for Tablets to become mainstream in the business world.)

Make sure to read the fullpost from jkOnTheRun as they bring up other excellent and valid points that I don’t to justice to (or rebuke) here.

Coming around the bend next is Life on the Wicked Stage

UMPC/Origami will add to the choices already out there in form factor, price point, and dare I say style. It will open up new markets to Inking and I believe increase Tablet PC market share as new UMPC/Origami users will discover the benefits of inking and touch and some will want a bit more ummph.

This is a fantastic thought. There is certainly a possibility that mainstream UMPC success would lead to greater demand for the bigger brother overtime. This is a scenario I would like to see.

Finally, comes a post from GottabeMobile. I’m just a footnote in Dennis Rice’s soapbox sermon, but I’m a bit unsure about his mention of my article and his ultimate point/conclusions.

I love it when someone makes a post that proves my point. Check this one out on Ultranauts that I did not see until after this post, and you be the judge. Entitled to opinion — yes. Serves a purpose? What do you think?

I’m not the most brillaint guy around, but I’m pretty sure that was an insult. So, what is Dennis’ point?

The reason for the soapbox comment is to wonder out loud why people cannot be open minded, be honest, but also be fair in comments, and wait out some things on Ultra-Mobile PC’s as they arrive? I REALLY think I get it. No, it will NOT replace my need for a nice Tablet or laptop, but I really see a place for this in my lifestyle. Make a choice. Or do nothing. But don’t trash my choice.

I’m not sure of the choice you’re actually making here. Looks like you can afford not to make choices. Most people don’t have the luxary of making every choice. And most people don’t have the desire to not choose, to do nothing. Becasue of that, people will ultimately… choose. And when people start choosing, there are usually winners and losers, favorites and underdogs. Ask the Commodore Amiga, the Betamax, the Sega Dreamcast, the phonograph, the Atari Portfolio (yes, I owned one… that should give me some street cred in the mobility computing space) etc, etc about which option the market picked when faced with multiple choices and similar functionality (no matter how superior/expansive the displaced choice was). Anyway, thank you for making a post that proves my point.

Lessons learned for Ultranauts.com? If only 1 out of 10 predictions is going to cause any real consternation, then you’re not thinking hard enough. We’ll do better next time. But, all kidding aside, I’m pretty proud to be a part of the UMPC/TablePC/Mobility/Whatever community right now. Excellent discussion, blogging brothers (and sisters). If we continue it (and many others like it), maybe we’ll have the impact and influence to improve the market.

Lots of posts and conjecture over the past 28 hours regarding some recent apple patents (see pic above). Apparently a touchscreen and an on-screen keyboard automatically equal a UMPC these days. However, I believe that they simply repreent the next evolution in Apple’s iPod.

Apple is making a PMP. Not a UMPC.

The key here is neither the touchscreen nor the keyboard component of the patent, it’s the implementation of Apple’s navigational/orientation interface via a touchscreen (i.e. a scrollwheel via touchscreen versus physical “buttons”).

But what about the keyboard shaped as an arc? Ah, yes. I expected this question. We’ll now, it appear that this is a full keyboard contained in one arc. Making it all but impossible to use with two hands. No, this keyboard is there to allow the user to easily enter a few letters with a single thumb.

But, why would you make a keyboard that is really most effective at thumbing in a few letters or words at a time? Man, you ask a lot of questions! Again, the answer is because Apple is making a PMP, not a UMPC. I imagine that the arc keyboard will complement the scrollwheel so that you can search through a large playlist by just keying in the first letter or two of the video/song. If I were you, I would also consider the fact possibility that Apple has wirelessly enabled this future-gen iPod, allowing you direct access to iTunes on it. That thumb-driven arc keyboard should would come in handy when searching their library of video, music and podcasts directly on the super-iPod itself. Oh, and it sure would make entering in Credit Card information much easier.

I’m a big fan of UMPC predictions. I especially like reading other people’s thoughts on the future of the Ultra Mobile PC. CarryPad doesn’t disappoint with its well-crafted article on what we might expect from the UMPC’s battery over the next 5 years. Here’s the bottom-line:

* 2006 - Average UMPC life 2.5 hours
* 2007 - Average UMPC life 3 hours
* 2008 - Average UMPC life 3.6 hours
* 2009 - Average UMPC life 4.3 hours
* 2010 - Average UMPC life 5 hours.

I think the logic behind Carrypad’s power increase predictions is right-on. However, I believe that new, advanced power technologies are on the verge of commercialization. You know, like from fuel cells and other technologies recovered from crashed alien spacecraft. These will likely lead to revolutionary leaps in power longevity rather than incremental ones. In 5 years time, I believe we will be looking at about 10 hours of UMPC usage per charge.

To fully appreciate Carrypad’s numbers and their excellent analysis, you must read the full article. It is just plain fun (despite all of the math mumbo-jumbo). Check it out here.

Its been more than a few times I’ve found myself searching through notes and online manuals and pdf print-outs to track down and compare the major specs of this UMPC versus that UMPC. I had seen a couple of online comparison charts before but they either didn’t cover off all of the “known” UMPCs or didn’t provide the right balance between enough detail and not nearly enough detail.

That’s why I was particularly happy to stumble upon this UMPC comparison sheet. It does a pretty good job at lineing up all the usual suspects and providing some simple comparison shopping. It’s quick and easy.

If you have seen other comparison sheets or any other helpful UMPC tool (online or off), please send us a note or leave a comment.

Yesterday we posted Part 1 of our interview with TabletKiosk’s director of marketing. Gail Levy (we smell a Pulitzer coming). Now comes the exciting conclusion!

Ultranauts.com: What’s the coolest thing you’ve seen done with the eo so far?

Gail: As for the coolest thing I’ve seen… I’d have to say that it is people’s reactions when they first see eo. They cannot believe how small it is, and when they see the Dial Keys in action, they immediately want one of their own.

Ultranauts.com: What do you think of the competition in the space right now?

Gail: The market is brand new and wide open. I think that there is such a large opportunity for the UMPC platform that there is room for everyone to find their niche and grow their business. As I mentioned earlier we see TabletKiosk as a specialty, boutique manufacturer in the midst of mega brands. We want to always be known as THE brand that customers come to for computing solutions and excellent service.

Ultranauts.com: A diplomatic answer to be sure, but who is keeping you up at night?

Gail: Honestly, the only things keeping me up at night now are my 2 wonderful dogs.

Ultranauts.com: If I were a UMPC marketing director, I think Microsoft might be keeping me up at night. How is Microsoft supporting your marketing efforts?

Gail: Microsoft is enthusiastically promoting the UMPC platform and we are working closely with them to promote eo. We became a direct OEM partner with Microsoft in October, and now work directly with the OEM team on marketing programs, that promote eo and the Windows Tablet XP platform. This includes print advertisements, tradeshow participation and joint marketing programs.

Ultranauts.com: Gail, on behalf of all the Ultranauts out there, thank you and TabletKiosk for taking the time to answer a few questions. Best of luck with the big launch later this month! We’ll be watching with great interest.